Global retail is gearing up for a robust season: Salesforce expects $1.25 trillion in global online sales (+4% YoY), with AI-driven discovery accelerating conversion. In the UK, holiday retail is forecast to grow ~3.8% in Nov–Dec, led by fashion.
And in the U.S., the National Retail Federation projects $1.01–$1.02 trillion in overall holiday sales for the first time. Category mix is shifting toward gift cards and apparel at the top, with electronics softening and experiential gifts gaining share (about 47% of consumers nationally plan to give experiences; regional reads show an even bigger jump). Health & wellness/self-care also ticks higher in gift baskets. Online remains a growth engine—Adobe expects U.S. e-commerce to reach ~$253B this season, while BNPL usage is set to rise ~9–12% from 2024. Taken together: more total spend than last year, but with dollars tilting to practical, personal, and wellness-oriented gifts, along with experiences sized for tighter budgets.
This year’s backdrop matters. U.S. household debt is at a record $18.59 trillion, average card APRs hover near ~22%, and half of shoppers plan to use BNPL.
Translation: the cost of mistakes compounds quickly. Holiday sales may top a trillion dollars this season, but that milestone shouldn’t
become your green light to overspend. Use December to create a festive yet slightly more frugal life portfolio: cap your total, allocate dollars to Musts, Meaning, and Magic (small joys/fun), then use a 24-hour cool-off for non-essentials. Be mindful that debt is expensive and mistakes compound quickly. Your best guaranteed “return” isn’t in the market. It’s paying down high-interest balances and choosing gifts that align with values, not algorithms. Spend on purpose now so January isn’t a financial hangover.
Treat holiday dollars like a life portfolio: overweight what’s flexible and truly valued, underweight what creates January drag. That’s how spending becomes strategy, not impulse. Whether taking in the season at Saks, Galeries Lafayette, Fortnum & Mason, or La Rinascente, may your holidays be bright…and on budget.
Cheryl B. King is a veteran institutional-investing executive and author of Your Worth: Portfolio of a Well-Lived Life (releasing March 2026). She has advised endowments, pensions, and health systems on capital allocation and risk, and is known for client care
“second to none.” Cheryl now applies those same principles to household finance—helping people design money, choices, and relationships like a portfolio they’re proud to own. She speaks on mentorship, decision-making, and spending with purpose.
by Cheryl B. King